Urban and rural areas from Texas to Florida to Virginia contain predominantly Black communities projected to see at least a 20% increase in flood risk over the next 30 years. Many of these are in low-lying areas directly on the coasts or Appalachian valleys at risk from heavy rainfall.īut the increase in risk as rising oceans reach farther inland during storms and high tides over the next 30 years falls disproportionately on communities with large African American populations on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. When we looked at demographics, we found that today’s flood risk is predominantly concentrated in white, impoverished communities. We estimated that the annual cost of flooding today is over US$32 billion nationwide, with an outsized burden on communities in Appalachia, the Gulf Coast and the Northwest. It’s the first validated analysis of climate-driven flood risk for the U.S. building stock to understand the damage that occurs when floodwaters collide with homes and businesses. While hazard maps only show where floods might occur, our new risk analysis combines that with data on the U.S. They are produced at scales that show street-by-street impacts, and unlike FEMA maps, they cover floods of many different sizes, from nuisance flooding that may occur every few years to once-in-a-millennium disasters. Our maps account for flooding from rivers, rainfall and the oceans – both now and into the future – across the entire contiguous United States. Most local flood maps, such as those produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, have a different problem: They’re based on historical changes rather than incorporating the risks ahead, and the government is slow to update them. Previous efforts to link climate change to flood models offered only a broad view of the threat and didn’t zoom in close enough to provide reliable measures of local risk, although they could illustrate the general direction of change. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. Yet, translating that understanding into the detailed impact of future flooding has been beyond the grasp of existing flood mapping approaches.Ī map of Houston shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years. A warmer climate also leads to rising sea levels and higher storm surges as land ice melts and warming ocean water expands. Decades of measurements, computer models and basic physics all point to increasing precipitation and sea level rise.Īs the atmosphere warms, it holds about 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius that the temperature rises, meaning more moisture is available to fall as rain, potentially raising the risk of inland flooding. They also show the importance of altering development patterns now.įlooding is the most frequent and costliest natural disaster in the United States, and its costs are projected to rise as the climate warms. The results show the high costs of flooding and lay bare the inequities of who has to endure America’s crippling flood problem. 31, 2022, we estimated where flood risk is rising fastest and who is in harm’s way. It’s the data that drives local risk estimates you’re likely to see on real estate websites. Our team develops cutting-edge flood risk maps that incorporate climate change. flood losses will be four times higher than the climate-only effect. With population growth factored in, we found the increase in U.S. Despite recent devastating floods, people are still building in high-risk areas. Over the next three decades, the cost of flood damage is on pace to rise 26% due to climate change alone, an analysis of our new flood risk maps shows. University of Bristol provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation UK.Ĭlimate change is raising flood risks in neighborhoods across the U.S. Paul Bates is Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and also a founding shareholder of Fathom. Jeremy Porter is Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at CUNY and also the Chief Research Officer at the research and technology non-profit First Street Foundation. Oliver Wing is a Research Fellow at the University of Bristol and also the Chief Research Officer of Fathom, a flood risk analytics firm.Ĭarolyn Kousky is the Executive Director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania. Professor of Hydrology, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New York Executive Director, Wharton Risk Center, University of Pennsylvania
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